Following the Hornets’ victory over Portland, which gave the team an astounding 29 wins at the All-Star break, I started wondering about incredible team turnarounds in the NBA. It’s not just your average, bounce-back-and-become-credible-franchise turnarounds. No, I wanted to know about the best one-season reversals IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE. So I checked. And guess what I found out?
Bob Licht |
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The greatest single-season turnaround in the history of the NBA is a 36-game improvement. The San Antonio Spurs improved from 20-62 in 1996-1997, to 56-26 the following season. They lucked out in the lottery and used the first overall pick to choose a guy from Wake Forest University named Duncan. He’s led the Spurs to the best winning percentage in all of major league sports since he came into the NBA.
How unusual was their 36-win improvement? Only three teams in NBA history have ever improved by 30 or more games and the Spurs franchise did it twice! So that brings me to the 2005-2006 New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets. Even though they too experienced lottery luck and used the fourth overall pick to select a Demon Deacon who will be Rookie of the Year, they won’t improve by 36 games. But, entering this weekend’s West Coast road trip Byron Scott’s team has already improved by 11 games over last season with 28 games remaining. Do the math. All they need is nine more victories to become just the 24th team ever to improve by 20 or more games in one season. Plus, a furious playoff finish (19 more victories) and one of the league’s great stories would become a hands-down, clear-cut, above-the-fold, scream-it-out-loud-to-your-neighbors best NBA story of the season. The Hornets would become just the third franchise in NBA history to improve by 30 or more games in one season.
Obviously the last scenario is unlikely, but the 20-plus win improvement is very likely, making Byron Scott a surefire top-three candidate for Coach of the Year honors, particularly if this team qualifies for the playoffs.
And that brings me to our final subject of the day: The playoffs.
Heading into the final games in February on this West Coast trip the team has 28 games remaining –15 of those are on the road and three others are in New Orleans. Only 10 games remain in Oklahoma City, where the team is 12-3 in 2006 (losing to the two best teams in the NBA, Detroit and San Antonio, as well as Utah). Since the Hornets are six games below .500 on the road and 10 games above .500 at home, the odds say the team could struggle to play .500 the rest of the regular season.
However, what if they did? What if Byron’s crew plays exactly .500 in its final 28 games? The Hornets would finish with a 43-39 record. Is this sufficient to qualify for the playoffs?
My guess is the team would fall just short of qualifying for the postseason. Last season the Minnesota Timberwolves finished 44-38 and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Memphis was the eighth seed at 45-37 and was swept in its first-round series by Phoenix.
If we use last season as a guide of where the Hornets must finish to continue their season past April 21, then they would have to finish no worse than 16-12 the rest of the way.
Are there 16 more victories on the schedule?
Yes, if not more.
There are 13 sub-.500 teams remaining on the schedule. Five are at home. Eight of those are on the road. If they sweep the five home games (Houston, Golden State, Toronto, Seattle and Utah) and split the eight road games (Utah, Portland, Seattle, Toronto) that would be nine wins. Of the remaining 15 games against .500 or better clubs, five are at the Ford Center and three are home games in New Orleans. If the Hornets capture six of those eight (New Jersey, Lakers, Memphis, Indiana, Clippers, and Cleveland) their win total increases to 15, or one shy of the total I believe they need to qualify for the playoffs. That means they would only have to win one of their remaining seven road games against winning teams to reach 16 more victories. The weakest of those teams could very well be the Lakers.
That brings me to a dramatic end-of-the-season scenario. Provided my projected win total is accurate (not a given), and provided the win/loss scenario plays out as I mention above (not a given), the Hornets’ playoff season would ride on the final game of the season…in LA…against Kobe and the Lakers on April 19th!
Imagine the headlines:
SHOWTIME SCOTT RETURNS TO LA FOR DO-OR-DIE
KOBE CUEING UP TO KEEP HORNETS FROM ADVANCING
A HORNETS WIN KEEPS THEM ON THE MOVE…INTO THE PLAYOFFS!
CAN PAUL PROVIDE POSTSEASON PUSH IN LA?
The ideas are endless, which is one reason why NBA playoff basketball is so exciting. The Hornets need to stay healthy to remain in the race. If they do, I predict we’ll all be preparing for more games following that regular season-ending West Coast road trip. It would be a Hollywood ending…in Hollywood. Certainly befitting of a team that has been through more this season than most endure in a lifetime.
| BOB LICHT BIO |
Bob Licht is in his first season as the Hornets television play-by-play broadcaster. Licht spen the previous nine seasons as the New Orleans Hornets radio play-by-play voice. Licht, known for his high-energy, colorful broadcasts (including his signature big basket call, "bottom"), has also provided fill-in play-by-play on Hornets television broadcasts during parts of the past five NBA seasons on Fox Sports and Cox Sports Television.
Along with his play-by-play duties for the Hornets, Licht is also responsible for negotiating and building the Hornets Radio Network as well as authoring a weekly column "In The Lane" for Hornets.com.
For five seasons, Licht was the play-by-play voice of the WNBA's Charlotte Sting and co-host of the Hornets and Sting monthly TV magazine shows.
The 28-year broadcast veteran also has an extensive background in professional baseball that spans three levels of minor league play. During that time, the Detroit native served as play-by-play voice for the Florida Marlins' Triple-A team (Charlotte Knights, International League) in 1996 and 1997 and the Pittsburgh Pirates' Double-A team (Carolina Mudcats, Southern League) from 1990-1995. He was named the league's broadcaster of the year in 1995.
The Mandeville resident graduated from Syracuse University with a degree in broadcast journalism in 1981. During his time at Syracuse, he was involved in radio broadcasts of S.U. football, basketball and lacrosse. As a junior, he served as a reporter at the 1980 Lake Placid Winter Olympics and did play-by-play for the Toronto Blue Jays' Triple-A team (Syracuse Chiefs).
Following his graduation, Licht was the play-by-play voice of Marietta (Ohio) College football, basketball and baseball. From there he moved back to North Carolina, where he worked with the Wake Forest University football and basketball network as an engineer, color analyst and play-by-play broadcaster.
Licht and his wife, Monica, have three daughters, Rachel, Sara and Alexandra.
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